Friday, March 27, 2015

[JNUG] update

In short, the odds are mounting that the scenario I foresaw first in this post and then expanded upon  in this post is playing out.  From a JDST perspective I see the following model.  In short, no 5 wave movement upward has been confirmed yet but that most recent pullback to $10.35 looks suspiciously like wc4.  I don't expect a convincing 5th wave up, I suspect it will leave questions.  And then after 3 waves down into green B, JDST will likely get serious into wave C up (C of E of a large 4th wave HT).  JDST has that characteristic of stating off slow and then exploding.  But until we see 5 waves up it is not a done deal.

From the other side of the looking glass, the short term picture is not positive for JNUG.  The lower parallel was broken down and then the back test from below was rejected downward.  A bit more southing from here will create 5 down which, again, I expect to be subtle, perhaps looking like a double bottom to non EW traders.  After that we should get a bounce back up to the level of the prior 4th which I will certainly be trading long JNUG but once I see a-b-c the the $20 range I will let Mr. Market have his shares back.

This model expects to eventually see a lower low created by 3 big waves which take back most of the recent rally from $13 to $23.  Maybe a bottom in the $15 level or, perhaps, at $14.40.

I plan to continue working on my subscription web site this weekend.  I'm a programmer but not a web programmer and I am doing all the work myself.  Thus, I will get it working but initially it should be pretty basic.  Still I have some good ideas to enhance the utility to traders going forward.  The new site will be focused trading the markets for profit.

Once I have the site fully up and running, most of the free wave insight will be eliminated from my blog and anyone who is interested in continuing to receive my Elliott wave models will have to begin paying me for my time and expertise.  As I think you can imagine, it has taken me many years to get to my current skill level with EW and it is very, very time consuming to create all these models and look at things from so many angles.  I wish I could continue giving it away for free but I really can't. 

Fair warning folks, paygo is coming soon.

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