Thursday, March 19, 2015

[SLV] breakout

The recent action suggests a breakout and then back test from above of an important resistance trend line.  We should watch that blue line carefully because, so far, all we really have is an a-b-c type rally which fills the gap.  If I were a short seller, I would have sold right here in the expectation that the sucker's rally was over.

My primary model is that the rally is just beginning.  A big, unexpected AM gap up from here based on some "news" would send the short sellers running for cover and make them think twice about repeating it.  Additionally, the smart ones would swing long after they covered their shorts causing even more pressure on those who think metals are going down forever.

So look to see if this blue support line holds.  If so, then super bullish because the normal expectation at this point would be an a-b-c back down to $15.10-ish (the level of the prior 4th).  If this thing gaps up from here my target price is $25, at least, as it retraces the entire sell off from 2011 to at least the 38.2% fib.

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