Tuesday, March 17, 2015

How to play the coming bounce in PetroBras [PBR]

In the backlink I noted that PBR was likely very near a major bottom.  Since then it has begun to climb.  While there is a chance this is just a 4th wave move with one more stroke downward, I think it bears watching closely at this point.

Whatever you do, buy the dip not the peak.  After such a long drubbing we have to expect a deep vee 2nd wave of some kind.  A double bottom is typical for this.  So wait for 5 waves up and then 3 back that do not result in a lower low and THEN jump on this ride with stops set just below the 2nd wave low.

Another strategy is to just begin cost averaging in at any time now.

If you are worried too much about getting a good deal, all I can do is say buy low and sell high and use stops in between.  And with a multiyear sell off that looks like this, you aren't buying high.  By the way, the falling wedge is likely either marking a 3rd or a C and IMO it is not a 3rd.  There is a very high chance that the recent collapse to $5 was not "a" bottom but rather "the" bottom.  Besides, Cramer gave up on it so the herd just hates this now.  That means I like it.

1 comment:

Augustine said...

A couple of dozen were charged with corruption at PBR, including the treasurer of the ruling Worker's Party: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31917231

The elite is turning against its own. Can you smell the blood, if not on the streets, in the aisles of power?

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