Thursday, March 19, 2015

[UVXY] update [DJIA]

In the backlink I provided this model:

While today's print looks eerily like the model, today's breakout of TRX makes me wonder if it will just stop here with a short stroke 5th.  We will know that is likely the case if this reverses upward from the open tomorrow AM and in fact a typical reversal of this type would include an AM gap up over that down-sloping red support/resistance which was destroyed by green 3.   The most satisfying count would be one where Freaky Friday (quad witching expiration) slams UVXY down as shown to ~$14.40 to form an unmistakeable 5 waves down from black 4.  Nobody can say for sure if that would be THE bottom in the long running great depression on market fear but it would very likely be A bottom with a minimum bounce target of $20 in just a few trading days.

For the DOWn Jones Industrials, that would look something like this the model below.  Watch interest rates!  If they break out despite the fed not giving them permission to rise then the Bernanke put is officially dead not because the fed put a stop to it but because the market just decided to lose confidence in the con game.  Yes, that is really the most fundamental of all "fundamentals" at play here regardless of what the vast majority of the herd believes.  When the world stops believing in US leadership of the global economy it is game over for the fed and for the seemingly unstoppable US markets.

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