Monday, March 30, 2015

[UVXY] update

At the backlink I clearly modeled a dip in UVXY of the nature that we have since received.  He is the chart from that link.

Note we are now in the target range for re-entry of this trade.  The count could be per above where we are getting close the the bottom of the 5th wave or it could also be viewed as the red count below and I suspect that the chart will leave it ambiguous as it often does at major turns.  So while I think an inclining double bottom is very possible, it could also make a slightly lower low to perhaps the $13.60-$13.80 range.

Either way, the way I see it right now there is an 80% chance that we see $20 or higher within 2 trading weeks and there is a 20% chance that blue 5 below was really just 1 of 5 and red 1 below was really just 2 of 5.  In that case this could go all the way down to $10 before finding the real bottom.  But again, I see that as low odds and, importantly, as long as the chart does not make a lower low than blue 5 then the odds still favor the 80% scenario.  If, however, the chart goes below blue 5 then I would lower the odds to 70/30 and begin to look at it very carefully because we could, in that case, still be working on 3 of 5 down.  So one prudent trade would be to buy here at $14.25 and then stop out 1 penny below blue 5.  Then go about your day and let the market do all the work while you do something else with little risk.

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