Thursday, March 26, 2015

Intraday reversal on [JNUG] today supports expanding wedge model

At the backlink I modeled a near term top followed by a significant percentage decline for JNUG.  Here is the model I provided:

This was followed reasonably closely by the chart as you can see from the current snapshot below. Notice the DDT that kissed the underside of the falling top rail.  This is not an accident.  The herd knew that invisible electric fence was there.

Because of this now-confirmed knowledge of the existence of this chart resistance, the next breakout of that top rail, be it with or without trip to center channel first, is likely the breakout that leads to $50 or higher price for JNUG.

So my primary model is to see 3 big waves down to around center channel but it could also treat the recent pullback as a-b-c and then move quickly out the top rail.  Were it not for my 4th wave HT model of JDST, the imminent breakout model would be my primary for JNUG.  We will probably know the answer by Monday or Tues of next week.  I am pretty sure that the market will not divulge the answer before the weekend.  It will determine how many people are holding over the weekend and if that number is "too many" then it will gap them down on Monday to inflict max pain.  But if nobody is holding then it could just as easily gap up over the downsloping top rail, thus signififying that JNUG is a strong buy on the subsequent pullback/dip.

Again, I cannot stress strongly enough this point: when trading you do not chase peaks!  You either buy the dip or you ARE the dip-$hit!  Period.  We must avoid the herding instinct that is fear of falling behind.  The smart trader learns and practices a mechanical system like EW and then ignores all emotion and ignores all the news and all so called fundamentals.  Everything you need to know about the future is already encoded in the waves of the past.  Of course, that does not mean that everyone will be successful in reading the wave count; it is often quite tricky by design.

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