Tuesday, March 31, 2015

[JDST] update

Regardless of missing chart data that showed up a day late, at first blush the first model at the backlink ended up being essentially correct.  Here is that model:

Just keeping things at a very high level, the chart below seems reasonable.

But when I zoom way in, the confidence level in this view drops quite seriously.  Most notable is that very first wave which, from a high level, looks like a slam dunk small motive.  But in the count below I had to put blue 2 as shown lest blue 4 overlap with blue 1.  Well, that change ripples through the count to product the one shown below.  To be honest, I do not know which will be correct.  But the nod has to go to the JDST chart below until we get more data to work with.  This is very subtle trickiness which I almost glossed over before.

Note: it could also be that green 5 is really only w3 of 5 so if we get a small head fake up at the open tomorrow, be careful because this thing likely needs to retrace to green 4 at least before heading up much higher.

Bottom line, the JDST count below is now my primary count.  If this is correct, JDST should move quickly down past green 4 as JNUG will be in wave 3 up.

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