Wednesday, March 25, 2015

[PBR] update

Petrobras pulled back a little but not nearly as deeply as I had modeled in the backlink.  While it was not my primary model, I knew this could possibly happen if you read the text of the backlink.  That gap up just above 2 or b in the updated model below should have been fair warning.  One more wave up and a major reversal will be confirmed.  I'd like to see PBR finish out its 4th wave triangle as shown and then move up into wave 5 before coming back down to the prior 4th here.  Time will tell if this count is going to be as easy to read as it looks...  The confirmed buy signal is a move higher than $6 with sell target in the $6.30-$6.40 range.  Then you look for a-b-c back down and buy with both hands for a 3rd wave up into the high $7 range ($7.70 ish).

Note that this 5th wave up move does not jibe with my expectation for USO which I currently model as needing one more wave lower.  If that is the case, PBR could well trade down to my original price target of $4.60 or even a bit lower.  In other words, instead of the recent peak being red 3 it could have been red C.  Watch for the 4th wave to finish and of course anything that gets back into the range of red 1 ($5.65 or below) should trigger a stop loss at this time.

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