Friday, March 20, 2015

[UVXY] [DJIA] update

Check out the backlink.  It contains these models for UVXY and the DJIA respectively:

So what actually happened?  Well, below is the DJIA snapshot.  Since it looks so close to what I had modeled, I'm going to keep the WC 2 designation but it could also be WCB.  If this breaks the lower (b-d) rail on Monday then we should see some big movement to the downside here and UVXY is going to catch a serious bid. 

Below is the snapshot of UVXY.  While I fully admit that there is an element of chance in all of this (just as there is in every encounter with a wild animal), these results blow my mind.  No, it's not always doable but very, very few out there believe it is possible in any way for any period of time. 

But don't get stuck on the recent accuracy of these models because that accuracy comes and goes in waves like everything else.  I've had plenty of wrong models and I understand that this is part of the game. If it were easy then everyone would be rich and that simply isn't going to happen in a zero sum game like market gambling.

What is really important is knowing when the model is wrong, and as soon as possible after it goes wrong.  This allows the intelligent use of stops and it makes the trade execution process mechanical and subservient to the model (instead of gut feel trade like most people practice).

While my primary model for UVXY is above, I do acknowledge a secondary count being possible per below.   Either of these counts are completely valid under the EWP.  The one below is a CWT centric version and CWT has been quite powerful in getting the correct counts for some time now.  A move higher than blue 4 of this model likely means that my primary model (above) is the correct model and the alternate model (below) would likely be wrong in that case.

We will know which it is on Monday and I'm hoping the secondary model is correct so that I can go all in (always with appropriate stops in place, of course,  in case this model is wrong).

Note that JNUG has been trading in opposition to UVXY lately.  So if UVXY is one step away from bottoming, will JNUG be one step away from a near term peak?

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