Tuesday, March 24, 2015

[DJIA] [UVXY] update

The recent action on DJIA has been uninspiring from a UVXY perspective.  The market actually pulled UVXY lower even though all of the major indices (DJIA, $COMPX, S+P500) were all quite red.  This tells me there is very little fear in the markets even with indices falling.  Maybe it will turn out to be a contrarian indicator but I'm not inclined to fight the tape given the real possibility that the market may simply be anticipating the near completion of a B wave as shown below.

What I am now modeling is a small downdraft tomorrow AM for the DJIA taking it to the 38.2% fib as it throws under the falling wedge that looks nearly complete already.  Once bottomed we should see a quick and easy to count 5 wave move up to break out the top rail as shown.  Of course, this is not in any way confirmed until we see a higher high than green a.  Something could easily happen to derail this move.  If, for example, we saw a gap down tomorrow AM that went below the 38.2 fib then I would begin to wonder if something else wasn't playing out.  The higher the number of people who believe in the realization of a certain market outcome, the higher the odds that something different will take place.

What that could look like from a UVXY perspective is below.

Zooming out a bit we see this:
Compare the actual chart above (including the modeled 5th wave finish) with the model (reproduced below) from this earlier post which seemed to have been predicting a similar result.  

Also note how the smaller chart above (2 charts up) which only covers 2 weeks in March looks similar to the larger, more zoomed out charts which cover all of February up to current.  This is the fractal nature of EW at work.  Fractals are built into the universe at many levels; I do not believe this to be a human specific thing.  I think it is just part of the order of  nature.

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