Monday, February 10, 2014

Action alert: Gold and GDX both likely bottomed. Very likely. Super likely.

I have been on GLD and GDX bottoming watch for some time now.   To recap my working theory: gold and silver have been treated as commodities for decades leading up to today.  When the markets were up, commodities would be up and thus gold would be up.  As the debt Ponzi collapse wears on they will return to their historic positions as money.  When the stock market goes up it is a sign that people are trading money for stocks.  Since gold and silver are increasingly being treated as money (first by global bankers, then by central bankers then by banks of all kinds then by corporations and perhaps someday again by individual consumers in some form or fashion), when stocks are sold the wealth has to go back into money.  But instead of dollar up, gold down like it used to be, expect to see dollar and gold both go up as gold and silver decouple from the stock markets.  It's all part of the concept that when the peak credit hits, things that used to work in the past will no longer work in the future.  A new reality will form.

Watch GDX.  It recently broke important resistance after putting in what could well be the 5 final  down waves of the golden bear.  The chart is still a bit chaotic here so I would look for the back test from above.  If that rising red line holds as support during the back test then the odds go up dramatically that the golden bear just died while giving birth to the golden bull.


By the way, a private EW technical analyst who I think knows his stuff much better than I do says if GLD breaks 123, the new bull is on.  Today it hit $123.16 before falling back a bit.  Bottom line, most stocks will likely be plummeting in the coming few months but GLD and GDX will probably buck the trend.  This inclining double bottom has a price target associated with it folks: conservatively $80 and up to $112 depending on how the waves look.  Worst case, a 3 bagger probably in 2 -3 years.  Why so quickly?  Because the wave now forming is either a 3rd wave or a C wave (doesn't matter which) and that means huge moves per unit time.  It also means a higher high than the last high.

Tell your mom about this one.  I know I did.

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