Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Bitcoin or Bitcon : question answered. My model was very good.

This was my first post on bit coin.  In it I wondered if it was money or a con game.

In it I wrote,"
I need to find out where to buy 2016 $200 puts on bitcoins!  Maybe these con men and others who are calling it "the new gold" will get their ETF in place in time for the final thrust so I can short it back down to reality. Seriously folks, I don't know where Bitcoins will end up and neither does anyone else.  The 5 waves that make up what I model as red 5 above might just be a massive 1st wave.  Perhaps it will only retrace 38.2% and then skyrocket into a seriously wild 3rd wave like some on the web are saying. 

But for all of its benefits, Bitcoins are not tangible.  If the government is threatened by it, the government could shut it all down literally overnight with the stroke of a pen.  Don't think they are above doing this because they are not.  This is why I love physical gold and silver so much.  Government cannot shut it down even if they wanted to.  Gold and silver are not some new, trendy, barely understood thing that government liars and thieves can easily vilify.  They cannot easily claim that drug runners and other crooks are using it to their benefit.  Why?  Because gold and silver have too much history as free man's money.

If the government made Bitcoins against the law tomorrow, lots of sheeple would be upset but they would just take the hit because government would do a great job of calling it "terrorist money" and blaming it on the ills of our "chillllllldren".  Government-believing sheeple who don't understand the significant technology behind Bitcoins would be glad to see them go because, let's face it, they are not benefiting from the existence of them.


Since the largest exchange, Mt Gox, has apparently been shut down and abandoned, I do not expect it to open up again.  Other bitcoin exchanges are still running though and apparently the bitcoin still trades for over $500 USD each.  So the fate of the system is unclear but the Mt Gox exchange was, itself, a mania.  It was brought down with the stroke of a government pen, just like I feared it could be.  And that's why bitcoin is not gold.  Government cannot just cancel gold for the good of our children.  The people would cancel the government who tries to do it.  We are going back towards gold, not further away from it. 

The reason is simple: people are realizing what foolish asses they have been to accept dollars as money and to treat it as retirement savings when government, with the stroke of a fat faced bureaucrat's pen, can render it worthless. 

"Gold is money, and everything else is credit."
--J. Pierpont Morgan, famous moneyman.

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