TRX action suggests pop, drop, and then skyrocket.

As we approach the end of a major bear market in metals, I expect the action to get nearly chaotic, especially for the smaller miners and explorers.  I recently modeled TRX down to 1.86 which it effectively hit.  But the subsequent action has not been the 3rd wave up that I was expecting.  It looks like a triangle is forming after 5 waves down and that makes me think that this a-b-c retracement will pop in the next few days but then drop to perhaps $1.70 by mid Feb as shown.  I expect the down sloping channel to hold and I expect the chart to then have a setup which says "5 waves up into wave 1, a 5-3-5 a-b-c retracement back into 2 whereby both the a and the c wave touched the support line and held.  When traders see that, the only smart thing to do is to cover shorts and go long.

If the pop in the next few days makes a higher high than mid Jan then this model loses Probability Points.  If the pop turns into a declining double top then it gains points. 

I know these are big swings in terms of percentage.  That is why I am building a position over time with the eye to getting great price on average.  That is why over extending, going "all in" etc. is the wrong strategy.  It leads to panic moves: panic buys and panic sells.  Unless you are a day trader (which few should attempt to be), this is a losing strategy.  

In any case, the recent action in TRX tells me to expect more trickiness and to just be patient.  All bets are off if that top support line cannot hold.