A closer look at TRX: The Owl is likely staring us in the face.

Longer term I LOVE the metals and the miners but this bottoming process can be very volatile with huge percentage swings.  It is a terror to some, a joy to others.  The massive volatility in all shares tells me that the market is very nervous and very reckless.  In other words, very near the end of a major reversal from bull to bear.  But I think the broader bear market will spell a new bull for metals and miners because metals will be treated as money, a safe haven from collapsing stocks.

Having said all that, the metals and miners are not going to make it easy on you to profit from them.  They will be as tricky as they can possibly be.  I was on bottom watch for metals starting at the June lows and the recent lows were only a tad lower.  So what has really happened since then is volatility with no real conviction of movement.  That is why we have to be so careful about the recent bounce in metals.  I suspect it will form a large ending diagonal as a way to trick the most people possible  Those who go strictly by traditional support and resistance levels always get creamed with these kinds of charts because no sooner have the shares confirmed a traditional break out than they are ready to reverse.  That's the beauty of Elliott waves: you have clear trigger metrics to go by.  They will not always be correct but since they err to the side of caution then it just means you get stopped out unnecessarily once in a while.  In fact, the waves are never wrong, it is always the interpretation that was flawed.  It missed the fact that the herd has 5 or 6 possible ways to cross the river and if you blindly just choose one of them you might have chosen a correct POSSIBLE path while missing the path that the herd actually took.

However, there are some signs to look for and one of them is that triangles are always the penultimate wave.  Also, most of the herd travels together.  So what is true for TRX will likely be true for gold, silver and other miners.  That's why it pays to look at several charts that are likely related - some features will stand out better in some charts than in others.

In any case, because of the triangle I have to count the recent rally as an a-b-c move, not 1-2-3.  This has met with first confirmation on the TRX chart because the recent dip in the blue circle at right would have been a 4th wave if this had been a motive 1-2-3-4-5 move.  But 4th waves NEVER go into the region of the first wave up.  That's why I count the left most peak as A, the triangle as B and the peak as C.

The peak also sports a declining double top and the whole thing looks a lot like, you guessed it, The Owl.

A break below the lower green support line is your final warning that the chart is breaking back down, probably all the way to the bottom of the lower channel at a lower low.  For TRX I reckon that will be about $1.20 - $1.30.  If you can get that, buy with both hands because that is a multiyear fire sale and the rewards will be fantastic.