XIV: ready to rally or master of disguise?

I think it pays to look at many views of the day data.  To that end I look at multiple industry players an indices, both short and long.  When all the wave counts agree, the odds go up that the model is correct.  When there are discrepancies (which I recently saw in VIX), I have to be more careful.

Below is the 15 minute XIV chart.  During the recent dip, that big spike down and then recovery and then dip down again to $25 looks a lot like an a-b-c retracement until you do the low level count and find it to be 5 waves down as modeled below.  It's almost like the chart is trying to disguise itself as being an a-b-c corrective wave when in fact I think it is a 1-2-3-4-5 wave motive wave.  Time will tell soon.

For Monday, I see one more small 5 wave up movement until the market runs out of steam and begins to reverse into an afternoon sell off.  I think the market will slowly rally the first 45-90 minutes before getting some "news" that it decides to react to.  In fact, the wave count up is finishing, at least at this degree, and so the market will make up a reason to sell off as shown if it has to.  

Note the green horizontal line: the gap down has been filled.  Gap theory says all gaps should be backed and filled.  So we could get a sell off for the last half of the day tomorrow.  Depending on how hard it sells I will decide if I should cover my shorts at the end of the day or not. The red line shown below would be a move down to the 38.2 fib but it could go further.  After that, another big move up to crush the remaining shorts before wave 2 is complete.  That C wave up might close the gap between 34.50 and 35.50.  That would almost take back the full sell off and it would scare the maximum number of shorts and encourage the maximum number of longs before the 3rd wave down collapses later in the week.

Day by day models are very fluid and the market will try to screw the most people possible.  I am going to be very, very careful until the new bear market either confirms its presence or is taken out with a higher high than $36.50 on the XIV.  I don't think a higher high is possible.  I think the market is running out of its energy source which is fed stimulus.  When the sun peaks and then begins to go down, the odds greatly favor generating less and less electricity with your solar array.