Monday, April 7, 2014

Tesla update - looking for a bounce

In my previous post on TSLA I called a top on the shares.  I was right headed but early (what I saw was the top of the 3rd wave, not the 5th).   I should have known.  Ending diagonals have not been 5th waves of late.  They have been 5th of 3rd.

Still, the stock did peak and then pull back to about where it was when I got nervous about it.  Now I think it is time for TSLA lovers to buy it again for a short time - just enough time make some cash to buy deep out of the money puts on it for the coming collapse.

Here is the current chart and model.  The recent pullback, at least so far, has been 3 waves (a-b-c).  It stopped falling before it could create a lower low today.  Within the blue circle we see a triangle which is a major hint that this was never going to be anything but a 3 wave decline.

Unless stock fall at the open tomorrow (in which case all bets are off until re-evaluation), a double bottom is in place which should lead to 5 move waves up as shown.  If and when you see that, it is a clear sell signal.  It can go a bit higher than the 3rd wave but not much.  More than likely it will be a declining double top leaving us with a perfect Owl.

Again, you really don't have to know the future here.  You simply have to have some vision of how it could happen and then trigger points for exiting the paper chase.  This is playing out as a Walk Away in May as I suspected it would back at the end of January.  Of course, it is too early to claim a victory yet.

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