S+P 500 Model Update

We are again at another potential topping point (odds, not certainties) for the S+P 500.   I have been thinking that it would be a "walk away in May" year but as I mentioned before, if the market senses that too many people are watching this it will do something to fool as many of the waiting crocodiles as a possible.  So I have to maintain my alert status until it actually does break down in a convincing way if I want max benefit out of TVIX.

Here is the current S+P 500 chart at various levels of zoom.  The  largest chart shows what I think will turn out to be a fish tail.  This is not an industry standard of any sort, just my observation of this general chart pattern.  The wave count indicates it could be a major top according to many others including Dan Eric, Avi Gilbert and many other avid wavers.  But all of these guys are now saying "what a mess" the chart is.  That is, to me, information in and of itself because it is the nature of the herd to get tricky around major turning points.

The inset center, left bottom is the last wave of the tail so far.  It shows 4 rail bumps and a throwover on the 5th wave.  Just the 5th wave is is shown center bottom and it looks like a 5-3-5-3-5-3-5 wave movement which is some kind of a complex wave.  The very tip top wave of it is shown on the far right and it looks like 4 of 5 waves are complete.  When it's done I think the throwover collapses and shorts are in good shapes as long as the wave does not throw back over.

Bottom line tomorrow might actually be the peak of the entire run since 2009.  All bets are off it goes above about 1896 and a rethink will be required.  So the stops on TVIX can again be set pretty tight without being falsely stopped out.