JDST and JNUG

As expected by my model, a 5th wave up did indeed play out on JDST.  It didn't count exactly like I stated but the net effect is the same.  In fact, I think there might be a bit more upside in JDST before it peaks but I would not mess with it now.  The easy money has been made and we should be looking for an entry into JNUG right now.  At the very least it has a nice sized wave back up, probably a 5-3-5 affair back to the prior 4th.  Well, that was 8 or 9% ago so this is a very trade-able move.

Now, I will be the first to say that wave counts at the 5th of 5 level can be very tricky.  I get them wrong quite a bit.  So I have learned to buy the bottom of the 3rd wave and then sell the top of the C of 4th and then just wait until I can get some verification.

Also keep in mind that per EW rules these past 5 waves down can be either the full 5th wave down after exiting that nasty horizontal triangle OR they can be just 1 of 5.  If only 1 of 5 you certainly do not want to be around for 3 of 5!!  JNUG has lost about 30% of its value in the past 6 trading days!!  That is some screaming leverage there folks!

In any case, we are no more than 1 trading day from a nice JNUG rally (minimum 10%, likely more).  What goes down quickly can rebound just as fast and percentages work in the favor of the long trader.  By that I mean, lets say an asset trades @ $30 and it loses 33% of its value (about the same % that JNUG lost).  Now it would be $20.  Now if the asset climbs back up to $30, the gain is not 33% but rather 50%.

 If it sells off on Friday as I have modeled below, just wait for the 5 waves to complete and then buy with confidence or just  wait for the end of the trading day and buy in just 30 seconds before the close (they can move these things several percent in the final 2 minutes I have seen - traders don't like holding over the weekend).   But that is an emotional response on their part (fear) whereas I would definitely buy into strong selling into the close as long as it looked like the waves were complete.  Why?  Because it will likely gap up on Monday so that the least number of people possible can get in.

Keep in mind that I modeled this move up in JDST on Tuesday - 2 full trading days ago (which is a lifetime for a stock that moves so quickly as JDST and JNUG do).  In that model, today's 5th wave is only 5 of 1.  So be on the lookout for an a-b-c back up for JNUG move as opposed to a 1-2-3-4-5 move.  If you get 5 waves up, it is likely that the full move down stated in Tues post is done.  It should only be a 3 wave movement in order to match the model. 

If it is a 3 wave move then mos def buy JDST when it is done because the next thing should be a 3rd wave down, a real doozy in terms of percentage.  Keep in mind that if we get that big 3rd wave down then we should also expect a 4th and then a 5th.  But those opportunities, as potentially profitable as they might be, are nothing compared to what will be made if the bottom of JNUG is bought on the ending diagonal throw under of the miners because my others models suggest that that would mark then end of the entire bear market in metals and miners.  Catching that wave could be a very exciting prospect even with relatively small amounts of cash on the gambling table.  Think 10x gains easy to the next major peak.