Amazing volatility in metals and miners juniors - -> Major medium term model change <- -

In yesterday's post I sided with JDST for today's open.  I was right in eventual direction but leaving an open stop like that when I had to get onto a plane for a business trip was too much of a temptation for the market makers and they took me out @22.10 before skyrocketing it to 24.55 at the close.  Ouch.  Not so much the small loss I took but rather the large gain I left on the table.  It was my mistake for counting a 3rd as a 5th, something I tend to do more often that I would like.  But in retrospect, the count looks clean, not any kind of manipulation.  I just was off by 1 wave.

But today's action also shifted the odds toward going long JNUG for now.  Why?  Because today's action formed a 5th wave up and then an a-b-c retracement back down.  The C wave almost kissed the 50% fib.  Becase of this, I have to count this move as wave 1 up and 2 down.  That means 3 up should be next.  Hopefully it will not gap up immediately in the AM so I can get some at current levels.

Below is just the C of 2 wave.  It could be 5 waves down and in that case it is just A of C.  But I'm guessing that it will be the full C wave.  In either case, I expect a move off the bottom near the open and a decision as to whether C is finishing or just A of C.  Today looked like it ended with an ending diagonal.  Thus, probably just 3rd of 5 of C.  With this as my primary model I expect a kiss of the 38.2 and then a bounce down to form a reverse Owl.  It might even have a failed 5th wave.

If slv cannot break down its lower support then this cannot be an ending diagonal and the new model is that it must be a 4th wave horizontal triangle.  Man are the metals bulls going to be crying manipulation if this plays out.  But it will be more like credit deflation forcing people to sell their stuff in order to pay margin calls.  If this breaks the upper resistance and then crashes back down as as shown, you should be a buyer after 5 waves down from black 4 and you can treat it as a long term hold if you like because a giant a-b-c back up at the very least.  More likely this will be the end of a C wave and so 5 monster waves into the next big metals bull follows over the next 5 years.

This new model is only valid unless and until the red d finds a lower low.  I would not bet on it at this point.  I would be on the metals and miners to rally quite strongly from here in order to pull in more victims before reversing as shown by the red line.  I know I have been hoping that this was an ending diagonal all this time but look how perfectly the chart kissed support and held it yet again.  I'm hoping to be able to go long JNUG sometime tomorrow after the 2nd owl ear is formed.