Perennial loser AMD is now on my "Aggressive Buy" list

I worked at AMD for 14 years.  There are a lot of good people there but it always seems that arrogant losers and bureaucrats are put in charge.  It's like a socialist organization and I almost choked when I heard (back then) that Dirk (you know who) was referring to the Austin engineering team as "Central Engineering", a very communist theme.  AMD was also very early in embracing the "fusion" buzz word which of course originally meant the fusion of government and corporations against the people.  Finally, near the end of my time there, I came into work one day to find an expensive color glossy on everyone's desk that repeated the Fascist/Stasi Bush/Obama line of "If you see something, say something".  It had a picture of someone who looked like 50s Russian spy on it slinking around.

It has been 5 years since I worked there and I have completely lost touch with the place even though I still know talented people who work there.  I do know that some of the most arrogant techno-bureaucrats that were running the place ran off to Samsung to pollute its technology gene pool.  So I while I used to know AMD as a technology company very well, I can no longer say that.  But I also don't care because the chart is telling me that AMD is due for a big bounce into the coming 12 months.

As you can see from the chart below, AMD got 5 waves up into the A wave and then a 5 wave corrective move into B.  I count the early move up off that B as a very sluggish start of a C wave.  Investors just were not convinced.  To me that spells opportunity.  AMD only lost 20 million dollars this past quarter on a GAAP basis and it grew revenue.  AMD's fortunes have always been cyclic so I expect more of same going forward.

The red box is my target range which indicates I expect an easy double on the shares from here and perhaps a good deal more.  At the very least, C should be at least the same "power"as A.  That would move the chart up to about the $10 range.  But that would only be ~ the 23.6 % fib which it already tested once.  No, I think it blows through the 23.6 this time and hits the 38.2.  That price is $17.22 which is 4.6x today's price.  For that kind of a potential gain it is worth adding AMD to my aggressive buy list, especially given the long period of hugging the bottom since the 2008 crash.

I'll repeat: the news means very little.  The waves mean everything.  Try to remember that later on if you rolled your eyes at the prospect of crappy little AMD making that huge of a gain.  Yes, it's possible and in fact extremely likely according to my model.  Of course, these are just random thoughts, not investing (gambling) advice.