Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Miners model from the short side.

In this post from earlier today I showed how miners ETFs had broken down and now I model a decline that likely finishes off their ending diagonal.  Once that ending diagonal is complete, I think the entire metals bear since 2009 could likely be complete as well.  In any case, I plan to continue playing metals long and short based on waves.  This is part of the reason I don't care about the day to day moves of the price of metals relative to my physical holdings.  I have a long time before I retire and no matter what the prices do today, it will have a much higher dollar value in the future.  I hope physical gold goes back to $250 per Ozt.  It would be nice to add to my stack at much lower prices.  I'm not predicting that it will go that low but I'm not saying it won't either.  I am saying I don't care.  If gold is at $250 in a massive deflationary depression then gasoline will be $1/gallon again.  It's all relative.

In any case it should be easy to figure out the short side of the miners chart but here it is anyhow.  Go in with a plan based on wave count.  Pick entry points that will allow you to determine whether or not your model is correct without losing much money (tight triggers).  Set the stops accordingly.  I am going to try to catch a piece of JDST tomorrow (5 waves up)and then flip to JNUG for that 2nd wave down (a-b-c/5-3-5).  That 3rd wave up in JDST should be very financially entertaining.  Look how 3 of 1 of C had a gap.  I can only imagine what the gap in 3 of 3 of C will look like but typically if the 1st wave has a 3rd wave gap then the gap in the 3rd wave will be larger.  3rd waves generally don't like to be outdone...

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