Wednesday, April 16, 2014

$COMPX model - watch out for head fake down at the open and then reversal.

I'm long TVIX for tomorrow's open but this new view of the $COMPX has reinforced my view that the weak opening could be a head fake down that will have an intraday reversal which would be a short term (1-3 weeks) overall bullish indicator.  So I'll ditch TVIX for several hundred bux gain and then flip to TNA or some other leveraged ETF that seems to be trading in sympathy with the broader indices (JDST might have just done that according to the past few days of trading)

That "Fish Tail" formation is a clear a-b-c.  In fact, its more likely a W-X-Y but I rarely bother with that level of EW perfect correctness.  I think people get caught up in those details.  I also think that it detracts from paying attention to multiple scenarios from both sides of the trade which, IMO, is where the real insight comes from.  Getting multiple verification on a model theme is one of the most time consuming but powerful ways to trade with confidence.  I see few if any other EW centric sites doing this.  They simply provide their bullish or bearish count on whatever they are tracking.

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