Monday, April 28, 2014

Sunpower now very likely near peak.

Two opposing models were given in this post with the selection criteria being whether or not the chart broke back up into the 4th wave channel.  Well, it did break into the channel so the 2nd model is in effect and the other one can be discounted.  We are very near the target price for completion predicted by that model as seen by today's action.  There is possible upside to $36 or even $38 but I do not think it will have the horsepower to break out of the top rail to a higher high.  That's because this is a 5th wave which should be about the same length as wave 1 given the extended 3rd wave.  The left most blue vertical like measures the length of wave 1 of 5.  It was cloned and then moved to the start of wave blue 5.  The lengths are nearly equal now.

This model is in trouble if the chart breaks above the top rail of the channel.  The 5th wave completion would get first confirmation by breaking down the lower rail after hitting 5 waves up.  You can see that wave 3 of 5 has already transpired for sure - the gap in blue 5 gives it away.  If this model is correct, it could peak and then reverse back downward any day now.

After a very strong run, this one is ready for a breather.  Look at the shape of it (so far) as it is rolling over.  Again, the chart has not begun a downtrend yet so this is not your average look in the rear view mirror.  Making calls about what has already happened is a good deal less risky than attempting to call the action in real time.  The only saving grace is that this is not a "gut feel" but rather the application (although with a degree of subjectivity and art) of a system (Elliott waves) that have a pretty good track record in the right hands.  If I were long this thing I would not buy puts (insurance) on it, I would dump it like a cheating girlfriend. 

Of course, it breaks out of the top of the green channel I would be calling her back asking for another chance!  HA!

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