My EW model for M+M is looking good, S+P finally peaked today.

First off, the success story.  Metals and miners are, so far, playing out per my models.  JNUG did indeed take an AM dip and then rallied up to $18.70.  Both of these moves were pretty well predicted by my M+M model.  I summarized today's action yesterday when I wrote:

"...I expect a pullback in the AM which I hope will give me another buying opportunity.  After 5 waves down from ~$24 to ~$15.70, I expect at the very least a 5-3-5 movement back up to the prior 4th to around $19. "

JNUG dipped to about $16.50 this morning before rocketing back up into the close.  But folks, my model says that this is quite likely an a-b-c retracement.  So I hope nobody chased this thing up into the close.  I suspect that selling into the close was the smarter trade.  Time will tell but after I bailed on JNUG I got back into TVIX @ $6.27 right near the close.   JDST would have been the higher leverage play but I want to see evidence that JNUG is entering a 3rd wave down before holding JDST over night.  I'll probably wish I had just done it.  In any case if we see a pullback in JNUG tomorrow and then a higher high, the model is bust.  It will mean JNUG has bottomed and is now reversing higher.  I will definitely jump back in if I see that because it will mean that the recent big triangle was a 4th wave, not a B wave.  In that case, these past 5 waves down were not 1 of C but rather plain old 5 and a massive move up should be expected after the monster correction since mid March.

The S+P 500 and TVIX have vexed me for several days now but TVIX showed good support today in the $6.20 range.  I model that it will begin it's a-b-c bounce upward tomorrow.  Notably, the chart was able to break below the lower range of the ending diagonal and then break back up into the channel today and for many people that will mean that it has now reversed its trend.  I believe the reversal will be trade-able but short lived.  I model the move down to just below the support line as 5 waves, not 5-3-5 which I eventually expect to happen.  So I'm calling this 5 of A of 5 as opposed to just 5 of the ending diagonal.  Also, I would expect a much larger throw under for TVIX than that little divot.  As shown by the chart below (not to scale, just shows the general expected wave structure), the move back up will likely be somewhere between 6.84 and 7.24 (38.2 and 61.8 fibs).  It should be powerful and fast enough and convincing enough in order to sucker in more bears before reversing on them one last time for 5 waves down which would be the real throw under.   Whiplash is a favorite tool of the markets for shaking off attackers.

Alternatively, that little divot could have been the whole throwunder and now TVIX will skyrocket but I see this as a low odds play.  Typically when I see the A wave nub under like that it is merely telling me that it plans to break down to a lower low at some point but that it cannot just do that directly.  It has to put on a show of strength and become semi-loved again else there will be nobody in the ETF to shake out at the bottom.  What good is a shakeout if nobody gets hurt??   In that case it's all effort by the herd and no benefit.  Someone has to get hurt but with the dismal performance of TVIX over the past couple weeks there can't be many big money momo types in it.  The trap needs to be baited with honey and I intend to scoop up my share of it and then be out before the trap closes.

As usual, I have my stops in place just 1 penny below today's low.  The most I can lose here is 7 cents which is about 1% (assuming no massive AM gap down of course since I am again taking the risk of holding TVIX overnight).

Here is my TVIX model:

Here is my S+P 500 model: