[SPWR] update

In my most recent previous post on SPWR I modeled a final push into the $36 range in order to finish a triangle.  As shown in the original model below, left, the chart then peaked out at $37 and had a big pullback as shown below, right.  Anyone who followed my wave model sidestepped a big punch in the face there.

I'm writing today because an alternate model suggests the possibility that there will actually be a higher high.  It suggests that the recent peak was really only the d wave of a larger 4th wave as shown below right.  Today the chart is at a very critical trading point.  If this is a "e" wave throwunder of the structure below, right then it will break back into the channel and form one more peak.  That peak will be the real 5th wave.  If that wave should occur, it should be formed of a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave.  So if you are a SPWR lover, buy the break out back into the channel, count 5 waves up that break the top of the structure (perhaps even as high as $45) and then sell, sell, sell because at the very least a massive a-b-c retracement awaits.  

If, however, the lower rail is impenetrable resistance then expect more losses in the coming weeks and months for SPWR.  Right now this can count either way so it is best to remain on the sidelines and wait for a clear signal.  You are not battling over 5% moves here.  More like 30% or better in either direction from this point so it is worth waiting to see what is really going on.