Wave 2 model using SVXY as a proxy

Wave 2 up lumbered on today.  Below is the current model from an SVXY perspective.  I count 1 of 5 of C as being complete which suggests that the chart could have a small AM pullback and then reverse to higher highs as shown.  The purpose of this move would be to complete the wave count as show while filling the gap and also making the C wave a bit longer than the A wave.  The blue bar shows where they would be equal in magnitude under this model.

Nothing is assured, everything is just odds at the casino.  The big bet on the table right now is not whether or not SVXY stops at the suggested location but rather whether the top level count is even right.  As I warned even before this vee bottom even began, this kind of doubt is SUPPOSED to accompany wave 2 of a big new trend change.  This is why I cautioned on several occasions that it could be a big bounce, retake most of the losses in wave 1 etc.

So while it is not assured that we are in a new bear market right now (not until we get a full impulse wave down), this is behaving much as expected.  I would be surprised to see all major indices go to a higher high.   I would be surprised, but less so, to see the $COMPX hit a higher high while the S+P and DJIA did not confirm it.  I would be least surprised if none of the major indices could muster a higher high than the start of wave 1 but it is foolish to say it cannot happen.

If we get the gap closing kind of action shown below and then a rapid reversal with gusto you can be pretty sure that wave 3 has begun.  Until then, enter at likely turning points and allow yourself to get stopped out easily if your bottom was not a bottom.  Yeah, you lose a bit of cash each time you are wrong but if you are judicious then you only take a couple shots at it before getting it right.  And then you are in very near the the big turning point into wave 3 down where some real money is likely to be transferred to the shorts.