All the indices up again but TVIX up too...

It appears that the markets are ripe for a major turn because negative divergence is beginning to become obvious between TVIX and all of the major indices.  This is the second time in recent history that TVIX is up while the markets are all green, something I have not seen prior to now.  Usually, if markets are up a little, TVIX is down a lot.  It has been a relentless pounding of knife catching for options volatility longs.  Without using Elliott waves to select entry points and to define stops I just don't see how anyone could survive it.

While I think this could very well be the bottom, recent events do not necessarily guarantee that.  The wave count shown below could just be wave 1 of 5 down.  But regardless, nothing goes straight up or straight down and so TVIX at the very least should get a nice relief rally.  If that is all that happens then it should peter out at around the level of the prior 4th of ~$3.18.  So I will be on the lookout for the swing trade.  But if it just keeps going up and starts to show gaps upward then let me be clear: this TVIX bottom could also have been the full 5th of 5th of 5th that marks the top of the broad market rally since early 2009.  There is evidence across many other stocks I am watching such as GE, JNJ, WMT, TGT and others that the rally is over.  If that is the case, the reversal should be very strong in order to catch as many "buy the dippers" off guard as possible because that is just what the market does.

If, however, we get a bounce to the prior 4th and then a big stall or even a move to a lower low, watch out below because it means that a 3rd of 5 is playing out and that the chart will likely go to $2- $2.20 before finding the eventual bottom. If that happens then the confidence will be very high that a real TVIX bottom is in.  But we have to play the market wave by wave during these critical turning points because once it begins to move back up I expect it to do so quickly.