Sunday, August 10, 2014

I like the JNUG chart for an entry point right now.

I think gold is going to rally in concert with the broader markets early next week and that JNUG is about to enter 3 of E of 4.   Anytime something is modeled to enter a 3rd wave it is a good bet to put some money in the direction of travel.  That little flat correction in the middle of purple B had even the best EW analysts working overtime to understand but I think it has committed itself at this point.  A higher high than red 1 will cinch it but I won't wait for that to happen.



Instead, I might buy at the open or maybe even pre-market if it is down a little.   A move higher than $25 probably means that 3 of C is starting so I might wait for that before piling in.  In that case, the stop would go below the recent low (for example as shown below if that low holds). 

This could also fall to the 50% fib before finding a bottom.  That would also be a buy signal.  I doubt that will happen.  I think this E of 4 needs to get done in somewhat of a hurry because the broader markets really don't have very long before they are likely to reverse downward again and I think GLD is trading in sympathy with them right now.

The high odds play is long SVXY and I am already there.  The high profit play is JNUG and I will very likely be taking a new position tomorrow AM.  IF JNUG eventually breaks to a higher high than the previous high of ~26.50, that is a very high odds buy signal for those who are playing it extra careful.  If JNUG really is tracing out C of E of 4 then it should be able to reach at least $40 in this move.  It it does that in 5 waves then STRONG SELL and in fact flip to JDST because that kind of move would strongly suggest that the prevailing wave count, that is, that GLD is in E of 4, is about to reverse downward to a lower low than wave 3 and that move should take JNUG sub $10.

If there is one thing that is true about JNUG it is this: Never, ever, ever take a position without some wave count to back up your decision because if you don't have that and then it goes against you then you might not know when to throw in the towel.  It is easy to ride the "slope of hope" down into the ground if you don't have some kind of plan.  A significant value of EW, as I have said many times, is its ability to provide trigger points based on the wave count.  

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