Monday, August 4, 2014

4th of 1 looks close to done...

Current model is below.  Keep in mind the high risk of trying to call these turns in near real time.  Nobody can do this perfectly but I do have a model that shows a return to the prior 4th using a 5-3-5 wave structure and that is the minimum requirement for this wave being complete according to the higher level overarching count:


Trying to call the turns this closely can be distracting to some so keep in mind the real goal which is to be in TVIX while the markets collapse.  If the count is negated for any reason I will post my view on that as quickly as I can.  The above in fact can actually be blue a and blue b and then only 1-2-3 of blue c.  In other words, I could be a whole wave off on C which could translate into several % points on TVIX.  That is not the real worry.  The REAL concern will be if this finishes the wave I am calling c of 4, pulls back 38.2 or 50% and then hits a higher high and significantly breaks out past the prior 4th.  That is when I would get nervous about this entire decline in the markets.

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