Saturday, August 2, 2014

Junk bond update: don't touch my junk redux!

Junk bonds have been clinging by their fingernails for about a year now.  There have been several possible breakdown points during that time but the herd simply wasn't ready to wake up and smell the danger associated with chasing yields on junk bonds.  However, the breakdown is now in progress as you can see from the chart below.  Nothing is going to put this genie back in that bottle IMO.  If you have family members who are worried about their economic future but who are not professional traders and never want to be, tell them to enable shorting in their account and just short this fund.  This thing is going to collapse for sure, it is about as sure a thing as is possible to get in the markets.  Short this ASAP and then sleep soundly at night knowing that once a Ponzi has entered the collapse phase that there is no reflating it and this is now the start of the C wave of the collapse of junk bonds that began all the way back in 2007.  The beauty of shorting this thing is that you don't have to trust some ETF manager to pay up on your wins.  As long as you have a strong broker, your money is already in that bank when you short. Not that financial institutions are trustworthy in any way but a broker is likely to be stronger than an ETF IMO.  Of course, the safest thing to do is to remove all monies from the markets and keep them in your hot little hands because we are all going to be reminded soon that possession is 9/10ths of the law in any crisis.

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