Metals and miners again at important decision point.

I'll repeat that I think metals and miners are much closer to the bottom than to a top.  The challenge is to catch the exact bottom because that is where the largest percentage gains occur on the bounce. It is also more risk.

Want less risk?  A lot less?  Near zero risk?  Then just dollar cost average into metals.  Forget the chart, most of the damage has already been done.  We are just seeking to know if the bottom is already in or if it will come soon.  By cost averaging into a position, you will not overpay on average.

As a proxy for metals and miners, look at GDXJ (junior miners ETF).   There have been 3 clear waves up.  What is unfolding right now could be a 4th wave horizontal triangle or it could be an ending diagonal for the C wave.  Note that the broader markets posed a massive come back today, almost as if the hand of God (or the Federal Reserve) reached in and intervened.  But the metals and miners did not go up.  One would have thought that would have been their break out moment.  So we have a divergence now.   Metals and stocks have been going up and down together for several weeks until today.  I guess the Fed only cares about stocks, not metals (understatement!).

If that top down sloping green line is broken then the chances that this is an ending diagonal begin to collapse exponentially.  If you see a clear wave up that takes the chart to about the level of the last high after 5 waves and then pulls back about 38.2% then we probably have a metals and miners 3rd wave ready to pop.  This will be the basis of a cup and handle.  A breakout of that top line and then back test would likely be the goodbye kiss to the bear market in metals and miners regardless of what happens to the broader markets.