Alcoa Aluminum [AA] update

In my last update on Alcoa I posted that the shares had peaked based on my wave count  But I just looked at it and the shares actually created a slightly higher high.  I now see that I miscounted the waves.  In the last model there was a significant peak between black 2 and black 3 that I thought was part of black 3.  With this slightly higher high, it proves I was wrong about that.  Here is the new model.  The un-numbered peak is now red 1 in the new model below.  The rest of the detailed count works out cleanly and so I think its a very good bet that AA really has peaked a this point and needs to do a nice a-b-c to the prior 4th.

While the peak value of this big first wave of the model did not change very much by this correction, something else very important did change significantly: the expected retracement level.  By missing that internal count, the prior 4th wave was all the was down at $8.80.  But in the new count, the prior 4th is more like $10.80.  That is obviously more bullish for the shares than the prior models.

At this point, the shares have broken their 5th wave support line and are now in the process of back testing it from below.  That support like will likely hold and it will send the shares downward to lower lows.