Not to sound wishy washy but....

In this post I showed that both the DJIA and the $COMPX have put in valid ending diagonals.  But that only increases the odds of a direction change, it does not guarantee them.  Larger structures can be at play which also need to be watched.  During trend toppings, the structures can be all crammed together which obfuscates the exact time of the trend change because that is what is needed in order to fool most of the people.

If the markets go up Monday - Wed as shown below and then turn around and break down, it will be the most bearish thing I can imagine for the markets as it will likely signal the absolute top.

There are two reasons for this.  The first is that it would cause clear and unequivocal touch and also throwover of the long trend line for this final phase of the rally.  In the chart below and to the naked eye, the rally of the last month caused the 3rd touch of that upper rail.  Three touches of the rail (waves 1,3,5) are a sign that the wave is complete.

But, in deference to the last part of that same post where I cautioned about the market's recent use of hyper accuracy as a weapon against traders, I drew the trend line on the 240 minute chart by zooming into the 15 minute chart so that I could perfectly hit the peaks of the waves marked in red.  As you can see from the inset, when I then zoom in on the area of the blue circle the chart does not actually touch the top rail; it falls short by 50 cents.

The market is free to be as accurate or as sloppy as it likes, so the top could be in but it is not confirmed.  A break out on Monday that ends up being the throw over the ending diagonal shown above will also be the throw over for the entire run since Nov 2012.  And as I mentioned before, if that happens to hit either 4400 or 4440 and then break back down below the lower rail of the ending diagonal then I believe it would be nearly perfect (99.999%) confirmation that the entire bull run since 2009 is over.

If you don't know the significance of 44 then I cannot tell you since you would not believe me anyway but if it happens then lets just chock it up to another bit of evidence about the order of the universe.