Despite rally, DJIA no new high since December. YET.

Occasionally I check other EW web sites.  I try not to do it as there are many opinions and I want to generally avoid becoming contaminated.  But late last year I happened across elliottwavepredictions.com where "Sid" had the following DJIA chart posted: 

There is a lot to like about this model from an EW perspective to say nothing of the fact that it clearly called the December peak.  His chart did not attempt to show bounces that could occur on the way down but he clearly indicated the start of a new bear market for the Dow.  Whether he will ultimately turn out to be right or not remains to be seen, but I think we are very near the next real information point. 

Check my current DJIA model below.  It has the same count as Sid's model but I show a few more things including the 4th wave triangle throw under (more evidence that it was a 4th and therefore penultimate wave).  Note the alternation between 2 and 4 in this model.

I also added grey measurement lines to show that the 1st and 5th waves are already about the same size.  the 5th wave so far is just a tad larger.  This is a common EW occurrence: there is usually 1 extended wave, it is usually the 3rd wave and if it is the 3rd wave then 1 and 5 will be about the same size.

As usual, the market (the herd) has left itself a couple of clear options, the major two being:

1. The 5th wave is already in just as Sid modeled.  The January crash was wave 1 down.  The subsequent partial recovery  is wave 2.  
1. Both of these events are highly aligned with Sid's model.
2. 2nd waves are often vee recoveries because the market takes a while to change  from its old behavior of "can't lose if you buy every dip" to "stocks are risky and dangerous, get out on any bounce".  
3. We are still in "buy the dip herding" mode.  I have a long time friend who saw the monster 3rd wave down in BBY and considered it a buying opportunity.  It sputtered around but he eventually saw that it was not going to bounce huge like he hoped.  In this way, the herd is taught, stock by stock beginning with the weakest) that buying the dip is now for dips.  
4. The mood is changing and, like the sun passing mid day, it quickly transitions into a waning market and then absolute darkness for a period before the next dawn.  It is twilight for the stock market folks.  Some of the kids are trying to stretch it out as long as possible but Mom is calling.  It time to start coming home for the evening.
5. The caveat here is that the market likes its little sayings and after the negative January Effect I would normally expect Walk Away In May. 
6. If the chart stops at this resistance then we have a potential declining double top.  A break back down through the blue line is good confirmation that Sid got it right.  A break above the red line puts his prediction in a higher state of emergency, but not bust until it creates a higher high.
2. Sid was almost right.  Instead of the Dec peak being 5, it was only 1 of 5.  The January Effect dip was 2 of 5.  We are now working on at least the A wave of 3 of 5 which will be part of and ending diagonal.  
1. If this is an ending diagonal, the red support/resistance line running up the middle of the screen will likely not hold.
2. I will say, the shape of the current wave is not typical for the internal 3rd wave of an ending diagonal model.
3. The Dec high already satisfies the EW guideline that length of 5 = length of 1 if 3 is extended as it was in the case of the DJIA.  So, besides extending the end until May, the chart really doesn't need to bounce any more.