Saturday, March 8, 2014

What would TVIX look like in the $COMPX throw over scenario?

If the $COMPX throws over as discussed here, TVIX might have one final leg down that takes place over the next 2-3 days as shown below.  You will have a good indication that this is happening if the lower rail is crossed at the red circle.  The play is simple:  Since this would the C wave then:
  • It is unlikely to meander like the A wave did.  It will get down to business and move with purpose towards its goal.  This is a basic nature of C waves.
  • It should consist of 5 waves down and they should be fairly easy to count.   C waves and 3rd waves tend to be more textbook examples of the EW principle than other waves.
  • The lower rail of the chart below should be broken down on the 3rd wave down.  That 3rd wave might contain gaps that are designed to scare everyone who does not understand EW structures.  But if I see a gap that breaks that trend line it will reinforce that I understand the correct model that is playing out.
  • This 5 wave breakdown will not be the panic sell signal.  It will be the aggressive buy signal!  Buy low, sell high.  Fear and discipline!  The break back up into the channel will be the first confirmation that the chart was indeed an ending diagonal and that the selling is done.  The second indicator will be the breakout of the top rail.  If these do not happen before the upper and lower rails converge then some other pattern is likely at play

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