SLV has reached the 61.8 fib retracement almost exactly and it did so using a very corrective (i.e. not motive) looking wave form. On the other hand, the move up to wave black one looked quite motive. I'll call the whole thing "intentionally vague" at this point. Image the herd at the banks of the river. They know they need to cross eventually but when and where is always the question. Are there Nile crocodiles just below the surface waiting to take those first brave few under for the big sleep? Of course, if not then the first movers will have the advantage of getting across before the main body of the herd stirs up the water and brings the crocs running from all parts. Yes, this is exactly the dynamic at play. Our job is to step back, out of the herd and be an observer and to not participate until we have the odds of herd movements in our favor. Of course, odds are not certainties so we always need to have an escape plan and an escape path in the event that the odds go against us.
In alignment with
this recent post, the SLV chart is saying that the odds support going long as soon as silver looks like it is bouncing, perhaps even at the open tomorrow, and then set stops just below the low of today (which was 19.49). So perhaps 19.40 is the trigger to bail. Aim small, miss small.
The next move up is going to be a $hit or get off the pot moment. If wave 2 is really over then it should go up, kiss that top line to form 1 of 3, come back down into 2 of 3 and then explode through the down sloping green resistance line in 3 of 3 to signify that the metals bear has found a significant bottom if not THE bottom. For my part, I sold ZSL at the close today and will flip long into USLV tomorrow at the first hint of strength.
May the odds ever be in your favor, dear fellow gamblers.
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