As you can clearly see from today's snapshot below, the herd might have acted like 5k wasn't much of a barrier but it was just a temporary act long enough to just kiss the top rail from below. That could indeed be the end of the 2009 rally or it could be as Avi thinks and it could be the end of the massive 3rd wave of the rally since 2009.
So we can be pretty sure that was a top but we cannot assume that it will turn out to be the top. We have to wait for more data. Of course, I will be playing UVXY while watching that happen. But the models I am looking at are shown below in red and green. In the red model, the herd treats this final wave up as a 5 wave move up following a 4th wave HT. In that case, that 3rd wave needs to retrace to at least the 38.2 fib into wave 4 (not marked). Interestingly, the ends up being very close to the center tine of Andrew's pitchfork (an important support and resistance trend line). So I think we very, very likely get at least that move. If we see that happen 5-3-5 (a-b-c) then we must prepare for one more final wave up that throws over the top rail per the red model.
HOWEVER, if this just picks up speed to the down side and then passes through the center tine very quickly - or better still - with a gap, then the odds tilt very heavily down ward. The green model below was not carefully drawn and should not be taken to mean that this is how it will likely play out. If the green model is taken it will probably kiss the top of the blue rail with wave 1, bounce up into wave 2, smash the centerline with 3 of 1, potentially back test the centerline in wave 4 and then 5 of 1 kisses the lower rail. Wave 2 then does a big a-b-c reversal upwards, possible to re-test the centerline from below before turning back down and smashing the lower rail to smithereens during wave 3 (actually, 3 of 3). By then we should have clearly visible panic in hyper pumped IBB, JWN and of course the social media and other essentially non-economically essential stocks are in free fall.
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