[$COMPX] near term decision point

$COMPX broke through 5k without much fanfare today which to me is not as bullish as it may seem.  A major milestone taken too easily is given up just as quickly.  I would have been more convinced had it kissed 5k and then pulled back strongly and then tested it again before breaking through.  In any case the model from this prior post might be playing out.

My top two models are below.  The blue model says that the move from late Jan is the 5th rail bump of a rising wedge.  In this case, that heavy wad of print right above red 4 should be 4 of C of 5.  If it goes up much higher then it is more likely part of the red wave treating the move from late January as a normal 5 wave motive sequence.  I don't know which it will be but I do know that if $COMPX doesn't start heading south almost from tomorrow's opening bell that the red path quickly becomes the higher odds play.

Zooming in, I model the red and blue paths as shown.  Note that from blue 4 to blue 5 is 3 waves (so far) which lends credence to the past few days having formed a rising wedge.  If so, then it could either be w3 or wc.  We should know very early tomorrow.  If this just goes a-b-c down to ~4980 then be careful with UVXY because the next move up could be the size of the first wave which began in early Feb.

One more thing: Buffett had an interview with Becky Quick today and his message to young people was not to try to time the market, just buy the US stock market on a regular basis and they will be just fine.  Buffett obviously believes that the fed is in control of everything (the potent dictator fallacy AKA Wizard of Ozt) and that if the fed wants 3% inflation forever then we will get just that.  I guess the fed's counterpart in Russia is just a complete stupid buffoon since they cannot achieve this.  Same for every other country in the world which has had hyperinflation in the past, including Israel.  I guess derivatives don't really matter anymore.


These kinds of statements are going to come back to haunt Buffett because they violate his own rule of ABCs that tend to kill off corporations: Arrogance, Bureaucracy and Complacency.  His words to the next generation might not be bureaucratic but they are nothing if not arrogant and complacent.  I guess two out of three ain't bad.