Thursday, March 12, 2015

[$TNX.X] update

Reader Steven B. asked if we should still be in TNX (or derivitives thereof).  It's a great question.  Here is the backlink.  In it, I counted the mid Feb peak as wave 1 up and then abc down into wave 2 into late Feb followed by 5 up into early March.  The model looked great at that point - reality seemed to be tracking it perfectly.

But then instead of only 3 waves down we now have 5 waves down and so the count must now be changed slightly per below.  So the direct answer to Steven B's question is that no you should not be in this having gotten stopped out when you saw that more than 3 waves had formed.  See the stop line below.

So what I see now is 5 waves down into A of 2, and now likely needing another move up to form B of two at one of the red peaks as shown before moving down rapidly into C of 2 at the level of the prior 4th ($19.50).  The reason I think it is likely to move up higher than green 4 as shown is the shape of the wave (not the wave count).  There are no rules for this but experienced EWers will call out certain commonly recurring patterns and this one I call the owl.

Regardless of short term shakeout moves, this will likely power higher into the spring.

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