Friday, March 13, 2015

[UVXY] update

The model from the backlink continues to hold.  The top rail of the 4th wave HT has now broken down and is being backtested from below. It will likely hold causing UVXY to reverse downward with gusto through the lower rail as 3 of 5 plays out.  Typical stopping points are mid channel (unlikely this time IMO), a kiss of the lower rail, and the ever present chance of throw under down to $10 ($9 is where 5=1) .  I hope for the throw under because of course I am not in this thing and also because the break back up into the channel would be such a clear buy signal.

If this breaks back out the top rail of the 4th wave HT then we have to reconsider this model but if it breaks the lower rail then it is confirmed.  Final confirmation is if we see 5 waves down from blue 4.

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