Thursday, March 12, 2015

[RUSL] update

In the backlink I showed a couple of high level models but neither of them has been committed to yet.  Besides, driving is for show, putting is for dough.  So let's look at the short term picture which seems pretty clear at this point.  I'm referring mainly to the red numbers at this point although it does seem to be taking the form of a falling wedge which, at this scale and in this formation would be WC and not W3 according to my proprietary interpretation of wedges (which I am getting tired of typing about in such a verbose fashion so I will shorten it to CWT or (Captain's Wedge Theory).  Yes, I do get tired of typing too ;  )

The nice thing about this model is that it contains a tight trigger.  That falling blue top rail should hold and if it doesn't then it will likely be signaling that this model is wrong and thus to look for something else.

Backing out a bit you can see that the modeled red 5 would find support at a major support trend line.  More importantly, a falling WC in this position would suggest the potential for a completely different wave count, one very bullish and that would be where the December low was not 3 but rather 5.  Then the move up into late Dec is 1, abc low into end of Jan is 2, mid Feb high is not 4 but rather 1 of a stutter step and then then next bottom is 2 of the stutter step meaning a massive explosion upwards in a 3 of 3 following the coming kiss of support.

So, 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-3-4-5.  Such a move would likely gap up hard.  Bottom line: wait for the 5th wave dip down to $18 and then buy and hold with stops just below your buy.  At the least it will likely go to ~$20 via abc.  At best it will surprise to the upside with a massive gap leaving everyone wondering WTF just happened and thus afraid to capitalize on it.  That's how the herd likes to roll with these super volatile ETFs.

No comments:

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More