[UUP] update, king dollar peaking.

In my previous UUP update I presented two models, blue as primary and red as alternate.  The blue model expected a double top while the red expected a HT to form.  To the untrained eye and the foolish mind, this will appear as saying "OK, UUP could go either up or down.  Thanks a lot, genius.  I could pretty much figure that part out without you".

To those people I say, please look closer.  There was a specific trigger that had to happen for the blue model to become valid.  Namely a break below that lower red rail, likely with a gap.   You see, EW does not predict the future, it only points out which game trails the herd generally selects in this situation.  The snapshot was taken at that particular time because it represented an EW crossroads and it really could have gone either way.

For reasons that are unknown and unknowable by man, the dollar decided to extend the 5th wave in a dramatic way, but only after completing the modeled 4th wave HT.  Even the completion of the HT was not known or knowable in advance!  The fact that it turned out to be similar to the model isn't magick, it's just an understanding of the migration patterns generally taken by the herd.  It's an odds thing, nothing more.

So now the dollar is right up against the upper rail and that has to be some kind of resistance.  But I don't count five full waves up yet and after this powerful of a run you generally get a throw over.  I show only a small pullback int green 4 but it could go lower to perhaps $25.80 and then break out on 3 of 5.

Pay attention to the big gaps in the 5th wave.  That shows the herd is sprinting.  That shows the herd is panicking into the dollar.  When a herd panics, it expends a lot of energy escaping the perceived threat.  This is not free to do!  It creates exhaustion.  The herd might remain concerned about the threat of Euroland collapse but when it doesn't happen just yet (too early, needs more time...), the herd is going to reverse back out of the overvalued dollar.  Assuming we get a throwover, the dollar sell signal is of course the return back into the channel.