Saturday, March 14, 2015

Important update for metals and miners: the turn upwards is likely neigh. [JNUG] [GDXJ]

In this post from Friday I stated that I bailed on JNUG for the weekend because the 5th wave did not put in a higher high thus leaving the possibility that it was not really a 5th.  Here is the chart from that post:


That post was made at 2:43 pm eastern.  Thus trading had a few minutes left in it.  After I left the trading screen, the chart did make a higher high thus confirming 5 waves up.  It is possible to go up in the AM a bit more to perhaps $17 to finish forming wave 1 of 3 up but then it will likely pull back a-b-c into the $16 region to form 2 of 3 down.  Then we should get a rapid reversal, likely on some kind of news.  Wave 3 of 3 up should get the shorts to begin panicking.  If we get this pullback to $16 as modeled the I will buy it and likely not trade until I see 3 of 3 has finished.  Then I will get to the sidelines and see if 4 of 3 plays out or if that 3 was really a C (I doubt it).

All of this jibes with my dollar topping call and my recent bottoming call on Petrobras.  Time will tell but I think we have a very fat setup in front of us.  Gold should rise to about $1400 even under the longer term bearish Prechter model.  What do you think that will do for GDXJ???  JNUG??  TRX?? (now trading sub 40 cents...).  DRD?  Other juniors?

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