That post was made at 2:43 pm eastern. Thus trading had a few minutes left in it. After I left the trading screen, the chart did make a higher high thus confirming 5 waves up. It is possible to go up in the AM a bit more to perhaps $17 to finish forming wave 1 of 3 up but then it will likely pull back a-b-c into the $16 region to form 2 of 3 down. Then we should get a rapid reversal, likely on some kind of news. Wave 3 of 3 up should get the shorts to begin panicking. If we get this pullback to $16 as modeled the I will buy it and likely not trade until I see 3 of 3 has finished. Then I will get to the sidelines and see if 4 of 3 plays out or if that 3 was really a C (I doubt it).
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Important update for metals and miners: the turn upwards is likely neigh. [JNUG] [GDXJ]
In this post from Friday I stated that I bailed on JNUG for the weekend because the 5th wave did not put in a higher high thus leaving the possibility that it was not really a 5th. Here is the chart from that post:
That post was made at 2:43 pm eastern. Thus trading had a few minutes left in it. After I left the trading screen, the chart did make a higher high thus confirming 5 waves up. It is possible to go up in the AM a bit more to perhaps $17 to finish forming wave 1 of 3 up but then it will likely pull back a-b-c into the $16 region to form 2 of 3 down. Then we should get a rapid reversal, likely on some kind of news. Wave 3 of 3 up should get the shorts to begin panicking. If we get this pullback to $16 as modeled the I will buy it and likely not trade until I see 3 of 3 has finished. Then I will get to the sidelines and see if 4 of 3 plays out or if that 3 was really a C (I doubt it).
All of this jibes with my dollar topping call and my recent bottoming call on Petrobras. Time will tell but I think we have a very fat setup in front of us. Gold should rise to about $1400 even under the longer term bearish Prechter model. What do you think that will do for GDXJ??? JNUG?? TRX?? (now trading sub 40 cents...). DRD? Other juniors?
That post was made at 2:43 pm eastern. Thus trading had a few minutes left in it. After I left the trading screen, the chart did make a higher high thus confirming 5 waves up. It is possible to go up in the AM a bit more to perhaps $17 to finish forming wave 1 of 3 up but then it will likely pull back a-b-c into the $16 region to form 2 of 3 down. Then we should get a rapid reversal, likely on some kind of news. Wave 3 of 3 up should get the shorts to begin panicking. If we get this pullback to $16 as modeled the I will buy it and likely not trade until I see 3 of 3 has finished. Then I will get to the sidelines and see if 4 of 3 plays out or if that 3 was really a C (I doubt it).
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