In the backlink I showed the support that I thought HUI needed to retain. For a while it looked good but today it broke down during n obvious 3rd or C. While losing this support was not good, it still has yet to confirm the breakdown which is what would be the case if the blue support line is broken. In this case, wave wannabe 4 ends up in the region of wave 1 and that busts the model wide open.
If HUI breaks down here while the broader markets sell off, this could turn out to be very nice for traders. If metals and miners are in synch with the markets right now then UVXY profits us on the way down while we look for the real 5th wave on M+M. Then, when M+M is down into wave 5, jump back out of UVXY and go long JNUG again. I'm never that lucky to get such a sweet setup but maybe this time I catch a nice swing trade on these two.
So for miners, as long as HUI is below the orange line I don't want them. Broken support is broken support. And if they fall below the blue line then you might want to consider a bet against them with JDST. In this case where miners are shorted, the stop is very easy - it's that blue line.
One more thing: I just posted that ASA's chart looked ready to move up. So this orange line breakdown by HUI could still be a head fake that quickly reverses back upward into the channel leaving many players stopped out. But if it continues below the blue line the I just don't know how to count it in any way except bearish and then I certainly don't want it.
We will certainly know if this was a head fake by the end of this week and probably be end of tomorrow. It will have to have reversed back up into the channel by then if it was in fact a head fake.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
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