[UVXY] watch on Monday

In the backlink for UVXY I modeled that Friday was at or nearly at the peak of a 4th wave HT.  Again, since this is just a probability model and not a crystal ball, we must pay careful attention to trigger points.   That is the goal of today's post in prep for tomorrow's trading session.  It is to provide clear focus for the clear headed trader.

In the current model, the e wave is finishing with a rising wedge.  So some sort of AM gains should be expected.  But I would not try to play them immediately because the odds say that it will just reverse and then breakdown both rails of the wedge and then the top rail of the HT and then eventually the bottom rail too.

First, let's think about what that would mean.  It would mean that my model is most likely correct and that UVXY is now finishing a 5th wave down.  We know that because HTs are always penultimate.  That "always" word is very powerful to a gambler.  So first we have to confirm that it is in fact an HT.  This is not currently confirmed!  It has to break down both the top and lower rail of the HT for this to be confirmed.  The fat red circle is the real confirmation.  So let's say this happens.  The play then is to simply wait for 5 waves down to occur and then step back in.  I cannot guarantee that will be the bottom but it would be a significant bottom.

Conversely, if this goes higher than blue a, the 4th wave HT model is likely bust.  So I would just sit and watch tomorrow AM until this thing gives us more clarity.