[DRYS] should benefit from a rising BDI

BDI=Baltic Dry Index.  It is basically the going daily rate for shipping dry goods (i.e. not oil, etc.).  The chart is denominated in USD per metric ton. While you would think BDI would pretty stable based on the cost of ships, crews and fuel, the pump and dump money supply has made it ridiculously volatile as you can see from the chart below. 


It's difficult finding a good single source for all BDI data.  The chart above stops at 2013 but the chart below overlaps 2012 and 2011 with the chart above so you can get the big picture.  At $540 it is back down to historically low levels even though fuel costs much more than it used to as do salaries, etc.  This is why dry bulkers are going BK very often right now.  The industry is in the consolidation phase of the bust and soon enough it will get pricing power again.



The "1000" label in the upper chart masks the 5 wavelets that make up the current motive wave down.  Zooming in (below) we see that BDI has put in 5 clear downward waves with wave 5 clearly subdividing 5 times.  At the very least it should move up into the high 700 range from here because that is the level of the prior 4th.  Even just that would be a 50% gain in shipping rates from current levels.  But after all these waves down since late 2008 I wonder if the C wave is now in for the BDI.  We  should begin to get some insights pretty soon based on the shape of the coming bounce.  If it will only be a-b-c as shown below then there is likely one more big wave down or perhaps just a double bottom ahead before it should begin to catch a real bid.