[COPX] copper miners likely near a bottom.

In the backlink I showed that the copper miners were in a massive falling wedge and that they had entered the throwunder stage of wave 5.

Below is the top level model from that post.  Notice when this started: 2011, same as the gold and silver sell off.  Whereas gold and silver can be viewed as 5 down that could be the A wave of a much deeper pullback, the copper miners are in a falling wedge which has to be labeled WC.  In other words, I do not believe that this is going to bounce up and then hit a lower low.  I think this chart is telling us that the recent dollar rally is not just a 3rd wave up per the conventional wisdom.  I think something larger is happening.  This is inline with my observations that if we get a C wave down in gold and silver then the entire US and world mining industry will collapse.  Even the big players are in trouble right now and the juniors have been ground into gold dust.



As you can see from the update below, the throwunder has occurred and now I suspect it is about to break back up into the channel.  Of course, it could not do this on a wave 1.  Wave 1 could only back test from below.  That test failed and it fell back into wave 2.  If this gaps back up into the triangle then just buy and set stops very loosely below wave 2 because the odds will be very, very high that you just caught this thing near a huge multiyear low.

I always say that I would rather go long stuff than short it if such trades are indicated by EW.  This one is clearly indicated.  

The red model says that panic buying starts very soon and that wave 3 takes out both the bottom and top rail in one fell swoop.

The blue model says that they try to sneak back into commodities.  Thus, 3 of 1 breaks out the lower rail and then 5 of 1 kisses the top rail, cannot breakout, falls back into wave 2 and then smashes the top rail in a power ful wave 3 breakout.  The 2nd wave could pull back all the way to the lower rail in order to create an inclining double bottom in that case.
 

Zooming in, you can see how the copper miners had 5 up but not the major collapse downward that gold miners had.  This is bullish non-confirmation for commodities IMO.  COPX has now completely filled the gap and sits at the 38.2 fib.  Yes it could retrace more.  It could do a deep vee 2nd wave.  But a move up into the range of blue a confirms that this pullback is over.

If it's over for the copper miners, it's over for gold and silver miners too.