My model from the backlink went badly wrong for ASA and all other miners. Fortunately, since the model came with obvious trigger levels the bottom should have fallen away while keeping the losses very minimal using stop loss orders (the best thing available in online trading). Buy and hold people would still be hanging on, hoping for a turn. EW modelers do no such thing. We are aware that models can turn out to be wrong but we know very quickly when this happens because we have a clear idea of what to expect. If the expectations fail, the model busts and the bad trade is liquidated at just a couple percent loss. Anyone who thinks you can make money in the markets never having lost any trades needs to steer well clear of them.
In any case, I believe I see how I got tricked on this model. The trick was in believing that 5 waves up had to be the start of something larger. But with the count below it is clear that EW rules have not been violates. I simply missed an expanded flat correction into green 4. Expanded flats are 3-3-5 in nature. So yes, while the move up from mid December was in fact 5 waves, it was not the start of a real bull.
The chart is at or near the end of 3 of 5 as shown below and we should get some kind of 2 or 3 day rally as shown before turning lower one final time. Once we see 4 of 5 of 5 and 5 of 5 of 5 play out, the stage will be set for a truly massive percentage rally in all metals and miners into the summer.
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