Monday, March 7, 2016

[UGAZ] update

Per the backlink, I believe this will be the week that UGAZ breaks out.  I expect weakness at the opening bell and then an intraday/AM reversal.  Then we will see the momo crowd jump in. 

Here's the thing, dear readers.  This is not a company, its an ETN.  It will not just go bankrupt unless the entire system comes tumbling down.  That can and likely will happen at some point but NFW is the system ready to collapse just now.  The DJIA is still waaaay too strong for that and JNK has not fallen far enough yet.  Some people won't even admit that we are in a recession yet.  What this means for UGAZ is simple: if they push this down too far then the bounce is just going to be too ridiculous in percentage terms and they don't want anyone getting too rich.  So if this goes down to 15 cents then it would be like SDRL on Friday but on steroids.  In other words, it will double or triple in a single day.  That's why this has to begin bouncing soon.  But of course WHEN is always the question.  All I can say is that nobody knows the future but that the performance of ORIG and SDRL on Friday tell me that the shorts are being pushed to cover and nat gas is shorted into the dirt.  It will have its squeezed just like the drillers are seeing, just like the miners saw before them.

I counted 5 up on Friday for nat gas so I give high odds that this was wave 1 up of a significant rally if not a new bull market for UGAZ.  I held my position over the weekend and will buy more on AM weakness.  So if you see a gap down, that would likely be C of 2 but then if this model is correct it should reverse upwards , probably before noon, and then go to a higher high than Friday's high.  If that happens, count it as wave 3 up.

If you play this and make money based on viewing an AM dip as a buying opp and not a scary selling deal (like most people who do not have an EW guru to guide them) then be sure to stuff some cash in the tip jar.  Karma is real folks.

One more thing:  If we get the AM gap down and then you buy into that, do set stops @64 cents because this chart has no business going down as low as that under my primary model.  If it does that then it means my model is wrong and then you will be flying blind. 

No comments:

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More