Saturday, March 19, 2016

[DJIA] update

The DJIA has powered past the top range of the backlink by a few hundred points.  This is killing the rounded top roll over model that I have been looking at for some time now and it's starting to look more like a HT4 is going to play out.  But fairway drive calls are for show.  The short game is where the dough is.  The rally started off all reluctant and rough but now it has become thin and stringy.  This is generally a sign that the market has gotten too confident.  I've been leaving UVXY alone since it just can't catch a bid but perhaps that downsloping green line is where resistance will be found.  EWI seems sure of it but I think a breakout in the DJIA will fuel oil and miners. 

Of course, those correlations are just fun stories to tell; they are not reliable, repeatable indicators.  The only thing that matters is the wave count.  The only thing I can say about the DJIA here is that this resistance line is real and unless we see some powerful breakout such as a gap, etc. just be aware of the potential for a powerful reversal back down to the lower rail.

I'll probably junp into UVXY when that top rail gets kissed but I'll stop out very easily if I don't get an immediate bounce down.  This is not a prediction.  It's just playing the odds.

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